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8.14 US Stock Daily Report | AMD Up 6.5%, Broadcom Down 5.9%, Indices Barely Move
The S&P closed at 7785.76, down 0.17%; the Nasdaq closed at 26729.16, down 0.28%; the Dow closed at 53732.41, down 0.20%. All three indices dipped slightly together, and the VIX moved down 2.60% to 14.25, signaling this wasn’t panic selling. The S&P just closed at a record high on August 13, so today’s 0.17% move is just a small step down from that peak.
But underneath the surface, things weren’t calm. AMD closed at 514.39, up 6.50%; Broadcom closed at 392.99, down 5.94%; Applied Materials fell 5.12% to 507.18; KLA dropped 2.70%; Credo fell 2.29%. Semiconductors didn’t pull back as a group — money rotated within the sector.
The reasoning behind the rotation is fairly clear. SemiAnalysis reported that AMD may enter the ASIC business and partner with Google on TPUs — a development that repriced AMD from a GPU laggard into a potential recipient of custom-chip orders. Broadcom, the incumbent in that custom-chip narrative, had its own problems today: CEO Hock Tan already acknowledged on the early-June earnings call that total TPU v7/v8i deliveries would come in below the previously guided 6 million units, and on Tuesday Bank of America downgraded Broadcom’s credit rating to neutral, citing debt-risk concerns. On one side is a company that might land new orders; on the other is a company already holding the orders whose delivery volumes keep getting revised down. Today, capital chose the former. Applied Materials and KLA on the equipment side fell in tandem, so this isn’t a rotation from design into equipment either — it’s a re-ranking within the same ASIC narrative. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index remained below its 50-day moving average on August 14, holding only above the 5-day line.
On the macro side, there was a more interesting disconnect. US July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, versus market expectations of a 0.1% increase; excluding autos, sales still fell 0.3%. Consumer spending is clearly weakening. In past cycles, data like this would have traders immediately buying rate cuts. Today, Polymarket pricing showed: 74% probability rates stay unchanged after the September meeting, 24% probability of a 25bp hike, and just 1% probability of a 25bp cut. Weak data only cooled hike expectations — cut expectations remain stuck at 1%. This is the biggest departure from prior cycles: the market is no longer treating consumer weakness as grounds for easing.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.70%. With yields climbing despite such weak retail data, Tavily’s explanation points to the US threatening additional economic sanctions on Iran — that’s what’s pushing the long end higher. The energy sector (XLE) gained 1.39%, the day’s strongest performer; WTI closed at 82.40, up 1.42%, while Brent gained 2% intraday to 88.89, with Barclays maintaining its 2026 Brent forecast of $96. Trump said that after defeating Iran, he would declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory, and according to the Wall Street Journal, he said the Navy’s deployment in the Middle East was “nowhere near long enough.”
The number really worth watching is that 1% on Polymarket: the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal transit by August 31 is just 1%, and 0% by August 15. The $88 Brent price already fully prices in the assumption that “the strait won’t reopen soon” — so oil’s risk right now is two-sided and asymmetric. If that 1% climbs into double digits, both oil and long-end yields would ease together. Conversely, if the situation escalates further, the upside may be smaller than it looks, because the blockade itself is already priced in.
Two other developments are worth reading together. Reuters and the Wall Street Journal, citing sources, reported that Jane Street lost roughly $15 billion in July, tied to the Situational Awareness troubles and that month’s AI selloff. A single-month loss of that magnitude suggests the July AI pullback left deeper scars on the leveraged side than the index moves alone would suggest. Meanwhile, SEC filings show Third Point exited its entire Nvidia position and trimmed its Amazon stake by 9.8% to 1.8 million shares. In the private market, Anthropic gave a preliminary Q2 revenue forecast ahead of its IPO of over $11.5 billion, at least a 14x year-over-year increase. ARK also increased its Cerebras position in ARKK by 15.3% today to 630,000 shares (2.27% of the fund), while exiting Deere entirely. Some are cashing out of public-market AI leaders and redirecting capital toward the pre-IPO segment.
Spot gold rose 0.6% intraday to $4375.67, up 0.81% for the week, while the dollar index fell 0.32% to 99.64. Utilities gained 0.61%, after the US ordered a coal-fired power plant in Michigan to continue operating.
Three numbers will set the direction next week. If that 1% probability on Hormuz starts climbing, oil and long-end yields will retreat together first, giving back today’s energy leadership. If the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fails to reclaim its 50-day moving average, AMD’s single-day surge is just a rotation of hands, not a new trend. And if the September rate-hike probability of 24% keeps rising, both the S&P’s 7785 and the VIX’s 14.25 will need to be recalculated.