2026.8.13 US Stock Daily | S&P Hits Record High, September Rate Cut Probability at 1%

The S&P 500 closed at 7,798.99, up 0.65%, a record closing high. The Nasdaq closed at 26,803.03, up 0.81%, while the Dow rose just 0.13% to 53,839.99. The trigger was the day’s inflation data coming in below expectations, which pulled the 10-year Treasury yield back to 4.64%, with the VIX at 14.63. Reuters characterized this rally as “easing rate-hike concerns” rather than “rising rate-cut expectations” — two very different framings.

Polymarket’s pricing for the September FOMC meeting spells this out more plainly: rates unchanged 70%, 25bp hike 28%, 25bp cut 1%, 50bp+ cut 0%. What the market spent an entire trading session celebrating is that “the worst-case scenario probably won’t happen.” Under this structure, the record high gets no help from falling discount rates — support has to come entirely from earnings. CNBC’s chart set that day explained it as corporate profit margins sitting at their highest level on record. Swapping a valuation-driven rally for a margin-driven one is more solid, but the downside is there’s no cushion the day margins peak.

Fitch also confirmed the US sovereign rating at AA+ that same day, citing the massive economy, high per-capita income, and financing flexibility. But its growth forecast was 1.9% for 2026-2027, down from 2.8% in 2025, and it explicitly noted that US labor demand will weaken in 2026 with significantly reduced job creation; the same commentary mentioned that the probability of US political gridlock and government shutdowns could rise, with duration potentially lengthening. The rating confirmation and the fundamental warnings sat side by side — the stock market only read the first half.

The most important divergence to watch is in crude oil. WTI closed at $81.17, down 2.52%. On the same day, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said two of its vessels were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, and the US Defense Secretary said the maritime blockade on Iran could be maintained “indefinitely.” On Polymarket, “Strait transit normal by August 31” is priced at just 2%. Ships are getting hit, the blockade isn’t lifting, and oil is down 2.5%. What explains this combination is Vance’s statement that America’s primary goal is keeping domestic oil and gasoline prices low, with the ultimate goal of restoring stability to the Strait and bringing oil prices back to normal. What’s being traded is the US’s willingness and ability to suppress prices, not any actual improvement in supply conditions. This pricing is fragile — one real data point on shipping disruption and $81 won’t cover the risk premium.

Sector performance lines up with the falling-rates narrative. Communication Services (XLC) led with a 2.07% gain, Real Estate (XLRE) rose 1.42%, Consumer Staples (XLP) rose 1.08%, and Technology (XLK) rose 1.01%; on the downside, Materials (XLB) fell 0.51%, Industrials (XLI) fell 0.05%, and Healthcare (XLV) fell 0.04%. The Magnificent Seven index rose 0.82%, with Tesla the strongest at +3.80%, Meta up 2.74%, and Amazon down 0.80% — the only one in the group to close lower. Workday closed up 18%, its best single-day performance since 2016.

The divergence in hardware names is worth noting. In premarket trading, HP rose 6.63%, HPE rose 4.64%, and Dell rose 4.56%, while Cisco fell 6.09%; during the session, Dell and Western Digital landed among the S&P’s top gainers while Netflix and Super Micro landed among the decliners. Within the same AI supply chain, the market is now drawing a much sharper line than it was a few months ago between who’s winning orders and who’s losing share.

Semiconductor equipment offered a cautionary note. Applied Materials reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.50, beating expectations of $3.42, yet the stock fell 3% after hours. The CEO’s commentary was actually quite bullish: major customers are giving the company longer-term commitment agreements and updating demand forecasts in real time for the next eight quarters, with total packaging revenue expected to grow more than 70% for the 2026 calendar year and global services revenue growing more than 20%. Lam Research announced the same day it will invest more than $3 billion over the next five years to expand its global lab network, targeting more than 50% higher experimental capacity. Equipment makers are building out capacity on a decade-long horizon, yet the stock market gave a beat-and-raise quarter a negative reaction — a sign that good news on AI capex no longer counts as new information at this valuation.

Positioning data shows two inconsistencies. SPY’s RSI is at 67.9, nearing overbought, with a call/put ratio of 1.48; Apple’s RSI is only 43.7 — the price is weak — yet its call/put ratio is 4.50, the highest in the market, suggesting someone is using options to bet on a reversal the price hasn’t confirmed yet. Amazon has fallen for three straight days, with implied volatility at 99%. That same day, ARK sold its entire 94-share position in Snowflake (SNOW), added to its Cloudflare position from 166,000 to 197,000 shares, and cut roughly 80% of its Deere (DE) holding.

Two things to watch that could break the current pricing. First, if Hormuz produces actual data showing a shipping disruption rather than just attack reports, the risk premium will need to be recalculated, and the cooling-inflation narrative would reverse immediately. Second, if employment data continues to weaken heading into the September meeting in the direction Fitch described, the current 28% probability of a rate hike would fall further — but by then, the nature of the good news would shift from “no hike” to “the economy is in trouble,” and the stock market would read the same number completely differently.