Here's the English translation:
8.11 US Stock Daily | Strait of Hormuz Standoff Pushes Oil Higher, September Rate Hike Odds Climb to 40%
The three major indices closed lower for a second straight day: the S&P 500 fell 0.32% to 7728.20, the Nasdaq dropped 0.60% to 26445.45, and the Dow slipped 0.34% to 53791.85. None of the declines were large — what actually moved was oil. WTI rose 1.62% to $83.46, and the Energy sector (XLE) gained 1.25%, the strongest of the eleven sectors. Bloomberg framed the day around the Strait of Hormuz standoff pushing oil prices higher while markets wait on CPI.
The standoff has specifics. US forces fired on Vela Nova, a Panama-flagged vessel linked to Iran, in the Gulf of Oman; Houthi forces attacked a Saudi commercial ship in the Red Sea, killing at least 3 crew members. The same day, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif claimed the US and Iran were nearing a deal. On one side, live fire; on the other, talk of negotiations — oil priced in the live fire.
Polymarket is more blunt about it. “Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal by August 15” is priced at 0%; by August 31, just 4%; by September 30, only 16%. “US announces end of Iran blockade by August 15” sits at 14%. Bettors don’t think this waterway returns to normal anytime soon, even if a deal does get done.
More worth watching than oil itself is how it’s transmitting into rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.68%. On Polymarket, “25bp rate hike after the September FOMC meeting” is priced at 40%, while “25bp cut” sits at just 1%, and “50bp+ cut” is also at 1%. Rate cuts have essentially been priced out, replaced by a 40% chance of a hike. JPMorgan’s trading desk said Wednesday’s CPI print could swing the S&P as much as 2% in either direction that day. An energy price pushed up by geopolitics, colliding with an inflation report that hasn’t even been released yet — that’s the most asymmetric setup right now.
Meanwhile, the VIX closed at 15.28, down 1.16%. Two straight days of decline, even as oil rises and rate hikes are back on the table — the fear gauge is sitting near fifteen. Either the market has concluded CPI will come in mild, or it simply hasn’t started pricing this in yet.
Sector structure has a defensive tilt. Energy rose 1.25%, Utilities 1.16%, Industrials 0.60%; on the other side, Real Estate fell 0.72%, Communication Services 0.50%, Consumer Discretionary 0.36%. Tech dipped just 0.12%, but underneath that headline number it’s split. CoreWeave’s Q2 revenue came in at $2.58 billion, doubling year-over-year, with a backlog of roughly $104 billion — Bloomberg’s closing wrap called it out specifically. Super Micro Computer’s fiscal Q4 net sales came in at $11.1 billion, missing the $11.26 billion estimate. Lumentum’s fiscal Q4 revenue was $1.01 billion, with adjusted EPS of $3.23. Within the same AI supply chain, the compute sellers and the chassis makers are now in very different places.
ARK’s rebalancing tilts toward the former. ARKK added to Nvidia (10.0%), Broadcom (16.7%), Teradyne (17.8%), and Cloudflare (41.1%), while cutting Deere by 61.7%. ARKW added to Nvidia (21.0%) while trimming Snowflake (22.4%). What’s being bought is chips and testing equipment; what’s being sold is farm equipment and software.
There’s also a thread worth not overlooking. According to Wall Street CN’s news wire, after Texas data center construction pauses, local electricity demand forecasts have been revised down. That headline landed the same day utilities rallied — at minimum, it’s a sign the AI power-demand narrative isn’t a one-way upward story. It didn’t move prices today, but it’s worth filing away for later.
What to watch next: if Wednesday’s core CPI reading comes in hot, the 10-year yield keeps climbing, and Polymarket’s rate-hike odds push further above 40%, today’s mild pattern of oil up/stocks slightly down will break down, and the most richly valued tech names will take the first hit. Conversely, if the Strait of Hormuz sees substantive progress toward normalized shipping — not just talk — the energy premium will get unwound, and defensive positioning should rotate the other way. With the VIX parked around 15, neither scenario is being seriously priced in right now.