2026.6.11 US Stock Daily | Trump Calls Off Iran Strike, Dow Surges 900 Points

Trump halted military strike plans against Iran and claimed a deal is imminent. The Dow surged over 900 points in a single session. The S&P 500 closed at 7,394.30, up 1.75%. The Nasdaq finished at 25,809.66, up 2.54%. The Dow ended at 50,848.75, up 1.86%. The VIX cratered from above 22 to 19.44, down 12.51% on the day.

The logic behind this rally is crystal clear: a concentrated unwind of geopolitical risk premium. Oil tells the story most directly. WTI dropped 4.30% to $86.16, giving back most of the premium that had built up over the past few days on Iran tensions. The 10-year Treasury yield fell roughly 8bp to 4.46%. Safe havens retreated, risk assets took the baton.

Sector rotation told the same story. Tech XLK led with a 3.73% gain, Materials XLB rose 3.27%, Industrials XLI gained 3.24%, and Consumer Discretionary XLY added 2.48%. Energy XLE fell 1.94% - oil drops, energy stocks follow. Consumer Staples XLP slipped 0.26%, Utilities XLU barely moved at +0.11%. Defensive sectors were left behind. Money rotated from defense to offense without hesitation.

Micron, Intel, and Nvidia led the charge, with semis once again playing the role of rally tip-of-the-spear. High-beta names have the most snap-back when risk appetite returns. Nothing changed in chip fundamentals today - what rallied was sentiment.

Polymarket offered an interesting reality check: the probability of a permanent US-Iran peace deal before June 15 sat at just 13% Yes, with $6.9 million in 24-hour volume. The market’s real-money verdict is that Trump’s “deal is imminent” carries a heavy credibility discount. Stocks rallied on the short-term relief of “no strike,” not on pricing in lasting peace. That distinction matters. If negotiations drag or tensions resurface, the risk premium shed today will snap back fast.

Gold held its gains even as geopolitical heat faded. According to Bloomberg, Trump’s peace signal reduced near-term military risk, but uncertainty remains. This aligns with Polymarket’s pricing logic: the immediate bomb has been defused, but the longer game is far from over. There is no reason to pull gold’s safe-haven floor position.

On a separate thread, SpaceX. CNBC reported that SpaceX is pushing toward a Nasdaq listing at a $750 billion scale, on track to shatter the record for the largest IPO in history. MarketWatch’s live blog showed retail subscription demand has already exceeded $100 billion. At that size, the liquidity impact on the Nasdaq on listing day cannot be ignored. The Musk asset universe in public markets is expanding from a Tesla single point to a fleet. Post-IPO, SpaceX will become a new variable in index weighting and capital flows.

The dollar index edged down 0.21% to 99.74. No story there.

Today was fundamentally a single-variable pulse - geopolitical risk downgrade alone explains every sector’s performance. These pulses arrive fast and hit hard, but their staying power depends entirely on what comes next. If the US and Iran land a substantive framework in the coming week, the S&P has a path to test 7,500. If talks collapse or new military escalation signals emerge, oil back above 90, VIX bouncing to 25, and today’s gains get unwound quickly. Watch that 13% on Polymarket. It is more honest than any analyst’s mouth.