2026.5.21 US Stock Daily | Dow Hits Record High, Nvidia Fizzles After Earnings

The Dow gained 276 points to close at 50,285.66, a record high, closing above 50,000. The S&P 500 finished at 7,445.72, up 0.17%. The Nasdaq closed at 26,293.10, up 0.09%. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rose 0.94%. The VIX fell 3.9% to 16.76. WTI crude slipped 0.52% to $97.75. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.59%, barely moving.

On the day the Dow made history, Nvidia—the stock everyone was watching—contributed nothing. NVDA closed down 1.77% at $219.51 after reporting earnings, trading 203 million shares. Among the large-cap names tracked in our Longport snapshots, it was the only one to break 200 million shares in volume—maximum attention, downward price action. The market found nothing in the report to push the valuation higher. The stock lacks a catalyst around the $220 level for now. Other mega-caps went their own ways: Amazon gained 1.30%, Apple rose 0.91% leading the pack, while Microsoft slipped 0.25% and Google dipped 0.32%. XLK still managed a 0.82% gain overall. More precisely, Nvidia stalled alone—tech as a sector didn’t.

What actually set the tone was US-Iran negotiation expectations and oil prices. The market oscillated around developments in the talks. Falling oil prices eased energy supply concerns, giving the Dow room to push to a new high. But smart money isn’t betting on a near-term deal: Polymarket puts the probability of a permanent US-Iran peace agreement by end of May at just 18%, a deal by May 22 at a mere 3%, and the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal transit by month-end at only 6%. WTI at $97.75 is the market’s half-skeptical compromise price. If talks deteriorate this week, oil snaps right back.

Sector rotation reveals underlying disagreement. Energy fell 1.12%, the day’s worst performer, directly mirroring the oil pullback—clean logic. But utilities led with a 1.10% gain while consumer staples dropped 1.01% to the bottom—two defensive sectors moving in opposite directions. That tells you money isn’t simply hiding in safety or chasing risk. IWM’s 0.94% gain outpacing all three major indexes points to rising risk appetite, yet the divergence within defensives undercuts that read. Rotation hasn’t picked a clear direction. Don’t rush to conclude whether the broader market is set to keep climbing or about to roll over.

Two after-hours threads. IMAX is reportedly exploring a sale and has held preliminary talks with multiple entertainment companies, per the Wall Street Journal. The stock jumped 14.34% after hours. Index futures continued drifting higher post-close—Dow futures up 0.61%, Russell 2000 futures up 0.86%—extending the session’s small-cap-over-large-cap tone.

Looking ahead, two dates matter. Friday at 11 AM Eastern, Trump presides over the swearing-in of new Fed Chair Warsh. Warsh’s first public remarks will do more to set the tone for this year’s rate path than any old minutes release. Polymarket prices the probability of a one-shot 50+ bps hike at the June meeting at 0%—the market isn’t betting on anything that aggressive. If Warsh signals otherwise, the 10-year at 4.59% will be the first thing to move. US-Iran talks remain the master switch for oil. If negotiations deteriorate this week and WTI retests its round-number level, energy stocks and inflation expectations will come back together, and today’s new high—built on the back of an oil pullback—will need to be reassessed.